* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 64 71 78 84 87 88 87 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 52 59 64 71 78 84 87 88 87 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 48 51 56 63 71 79 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 15 11 9 9 6 1 6 5 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 2 4 3 0 2 4 0 0 8 1 SHEAR DIR 238 221 223 236 228 193 219 196 46 181 152 170 237 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.4 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 129 133 138 147 154 160 161 158 146 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 118 121 124 128 135 139 143 142 137 125 114 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 57 54 51 49 49 48 47 47 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 21 23 24 27 30 33 35 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 42 39 34 30 9 15 10 15 14 11 12 200 MB DIV 23 29 57 57 46 9 11 54 32 73 46 62 36 700-850 TADV 8 9 2 6 11 10 10 9 9 8 3 8 7 LAND (KM) 1850 1835 1828 1822 1824 1804 1711 1590 1482 1456 1538 1678 1579 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.4 22.9 24.4 25.5 26.8 28.5 30.2 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.2 44.2 45.2 46.3 48.2 50.0 51.8 53.6 54.9 55.5 55.5 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 14 16 18 22 37 39 39 33 27 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 24. 31. 38. 44. 47. 48. 47. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)