* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 68 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 44 51 56 59 62 66 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 40 46 51 55 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 10 12 12 12 12 18 18 20 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 1 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 23 13 359 353 353 351 350 336 331 336 354 32 32 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 143 136 129 127 126 126 128 130 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 148 148 147 137 128 125 123 121 122 123 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 64 59 60 60 59 57 58 57 59 58 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 46 41 42 31 14 -5 -24 -37 -54 -61 -77 200 MB DIV 10 -8 -21 -17 -30 0 9 -15 3 -5 7 3 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 842 983 1128 1274 1424 1740 1973 1779 1627 1520 1461 1425 1330 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.0 27.5 29.0 30.5 33.6 36.5 39.4 42.2 44.7 47.0 49.1 51.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 10 12 10 12 10 10 13 15 12 25 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 42. 46. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/12/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)