* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 69 77 87 90 91 89 85 79 70 60 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 69 77 87 90 91 89 85 79 70 60 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 64 67 74 79 81 78 73 66 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 11 5 9 9 8 4 10 8 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 0 0 -4 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 27 31 33 29 61 48 119 120 153 137 134 146 175 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 155 154 152 150 145 138 128 120 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -49.9 -49.8 -49.0 -49.8 -49.3 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 77 77 75 75 75 74 72 70 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 32 35 37 37 37 37 37 36 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 16 33 46 55 54 85 76 102 89 88 66 59 32 200 MB DIV 61 69 84 72 91 50 78 67 74 30 15 25 19 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 -7 -2 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 352 361 370 378 388 360 421 320 313 307 385 401 429 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.8 16.0 17.2 18.7 20.2 21.8 23.0 24.1 24.8 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.2 105.4 105.8 106.2 107.5 109.3 111.1 112.9 114.6 116.1 117.3 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 7 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 73 74 73 61 48 16 17 14 7 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 10. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 22. 32. 35. 36. 34. 30. 24. 15. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##