* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 66 76 82 86 89 87 86 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 58 66 76 82 86 89 87 86 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 46 48 52 58 66 73 80 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 13 13 13 6 7 9 8 2 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 3 1 0 1 -1 -3 0 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 209 213 220 215 208 212 134 196 172 214 177 260 230 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 132 136 138 145 154 159 162 159 152 138 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 123 127 128 133 141 143 142 135 129 119 109 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -50.3 -51.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 50 50 48 49 46 46 43 48 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 22 24 25 26 31 33 35 37 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 39 31 29 13 9 1 0 -17 3 -13 17 200 MB DIV 39 64 58 28 35 9 47 48 56 32 89 -8 91 700-850 TADV 11 5 9 12 16 16 8 9 8 5 3 14 17 LAND (KM) 1852 1850 1856 1878 1873 1768 1629 1524 1484 1504 1583 1584 1391 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.8 24.2 25.8 27.2 28.5 29.6 31.4 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.6 45.6 46.6 47.6 49.4 51.3 53.3 54.9 56.0 56.2 56.0 55.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 11 10 12 11 9 7 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 16 22 24 34 37 40 31 27 18 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 26. 36. 42. 46. 49. 47. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/12/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)