* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 29 35 40 44 47 49 52 55 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 29 35 40 44 47 49 52 55 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 39 40 43 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 8 13 21 22 17 19 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 1 4 1 -1 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 354 349 359 359 323 316 312 312 350 19 27 39 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 141 138 130 124 122 122 123 125 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 141 138 127 119 116 115 115 115 116 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 59 58 58 57 58 57 63 57 58 54 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 53 53 43 18 -8 -23 -43 -48 -59 -59 -73 200 MB DIV -3 -10 -20 -11 18 14 -2 0 3 -19 -1 -8 13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 5 7 4 3 3 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 967 1087 1212 1334 1460 1719 1964 2018 1930 1862 1815 1785 1750 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 33.5 35.8 37.9 40.0 41.9 43.6 45.2 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 16 14 10 12 8 14 8 5 12 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 32. 35. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/12/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED