* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 71 78 87 90 91 89 81 72 62 53 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 71 78 87 90 91 89 81 72 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 62 66 69 75 79 79 76 71 63 55 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 5 4 1 6 3 7 7 13 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 -4 0 0 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 25 30 29 17 349 355 113 106 232 152 146 166 193 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 153 152 152 143 135 126 119 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.1 -50.2 -50.1 -49.4 -49.6 -49.8 -49.7 -49.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 77 76 78 76 74 71 73 72 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 31 34 36 37 38 38 36 34 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 27 45 45 42 57 75 72 90 82 80 80 54 62 200 MB DIV 70 81 74 70 87 73 45 27 65 30 49 24 31 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 0 0 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 337 345 356 358 349 360 377 281 303 306 361 357 372 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.7 19.5 21.0 22.3 23.4 24.3 24.9 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.4 107.9 109.9 111.8 113.5 114.9 116.0 116.8 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 7 11 13 11 9 8 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 70 68 61 46 33 15 19 10 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 15. 18. 18. 15. 12. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 23. 32. 35. 36. 34. 26. 17. 7. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##