* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/12/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 27 29 31 32 33 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 11 14 12 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 99 89 83 106 109 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 132 135 138 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 51 52 51 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 35 39 46 139 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 26 16 18 31 77 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1133 1119 1106 1099 1082 1051 1017 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.3 15.7 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 118.9 118.5 118.1 117.6 116.5 114.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 6 6 6 12 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/12/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/12/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##