* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 54 64 73 82 87 88 84 79 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 54 64 73 82 87 88 84 79 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 42 45 49 56 65 73 77 76 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 11 10 6 7 5 11 7 7 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 3 2 3 0 0 0 -1 1 7 -1 10 SHEAR DIR 212 207 201 193 172 175 153 130 174 193 205 244 241 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.1 27.8 26.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 133 138 142 149 157 161 162 154 136 122 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 122 125 129 132 137 143 145 143 134 119 108 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 7 5 700-500 MB RH 51 54 52 49 48 46 44 44 43 45 51 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 24 25 28 31 34 36 37 36 36 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 32 27 30 10 10 -5 4 -3 -6 -13 -21 200 MB DIV 74 76 50 36 8 4 61 38 61 54 40 37 71 700-850 TADV 1 4 11 14 13 9 9 8 5 0 9 9 36 LAND (KM) 1801 1806 1814 1823 1792 1621 1506 1417 1385 1525 1507 1290 1018 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.2 21.9 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.7 29.7 32.1 34.9 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.7 45.7 46.7 47.7 48.8 51.0 52.8 54.8 56.8 57.3 56.2 54.2 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 19 20 27 36 41 35 31 15 11 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 24. 33. 42. 47. 48. 44. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)