* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 41 45 48 50 54 58 62 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 29 35 41 45 48 50 54 58 62 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 38 40 42 47 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 10 9 11 16 21 21 19 19 21 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 2 0 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 8 10 9 4 350 309 317 311 312 340 17 18 27 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 140 134 127 124 124 125 125 128 131 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 144 141 134 124 120 118 119 118 120 123 126 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 57 56 56 58 60 60 57 57 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 60 57 48 39 18 3 -18 -27 -35 -44 -55 -61 200 MB DIV -16 -16 -9 12 23 2 -2 14 -15 -22 -8 24 -3 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 0 0 6 3 5 1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1052 1184 1322 1456 1594 1879 1982 1846 1733 1633 1589 1532 1431 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 28.2 29.6 30.9 32.3 35.0 37.6 40.0 42.3 44.5 46.4 48.5 50.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 14 14 10 11 9 15 9 7 20 14 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 34. 38. 42. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED