* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 26 27 29 30 29 26 24 22 18 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 21 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 7 13 20 30 36 45 43 39 37 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 1 1 2 -4 -1 -7 1 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 252 233 236 231 238 258 265 276 273 291 283 290 283 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.7 29.1 28.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 164 163 163 167 170 170 170 161 151 136 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 152 151 151 154 152 147 143 133 125 113 92 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 8 10 4 10 7 11 10 12 10 11 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 78 76 71 66 64 59 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -11 -13 -19 -23 -32 -34 -43 -41 -40 -42 -64 -56 200 MB DIV 38 42 25 51 48 20 34 11 29 9 -6 5 24 700-850 TADV 4 0 1 5 14 19 15 4 0 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 152 70 39 -81 -194 -450 -437 -447 -451 -440 -433 -429 -378 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.6 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.4 30.3 30.9 31.5 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.6 97.5 98.6 99.7 102.2 104.1 105.2 106.1 106.9 107.6 108.5 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 13 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 28 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 3. -3. -10. -15. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 09/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 09/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)