* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 63 68 76 80 79 77 71 62 55 46 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 63 68 76 80 79 77 71 62 55 46 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 58 59 62 65 65 63 60 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 5 1 7 4 10 9 6 6 14 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 4 -1 3 -3 0 0 0 -4 0 4 SHEAR DIR 15 10 337 22 57 180 148 174 170 103 154 210 176 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 154 156 151 145 137 126 118 114 111 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.2 -49.6 -50.0 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 10 8 10 7 7 5 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 75 76 80 78 76 72 73 67 67 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 29 31 33 35 36 35 34 33 31 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 40 55 71 64 83 76 83 70 57 47 42 200 MB DIV 70 57 68 79 86 55 65 19 80 36 20 19 31 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -6 -5 -5 -3 3 -5 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 306 307 309 290 283 319 222 186 176 232 272 289 332 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.9 20.9 22.4 23.5 24.2 24.9 25.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.5 105.8 106.3 106.8 108.3 110.1 111.8 113.3 114.5 115.4 116.4 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 8 11 12 10 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 55 46 39 29 23 21 18 6 14 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 8. 13. 21. 25. 24. 22. 16. 7. 0. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##