* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 54 55 62 70 79 83 88 87 83 76 V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 54 55 62 70 79 83 88 87 83 76 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 50 52 55 61 67 74 78 78 76 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 15 13 9 11 10 7 8 16 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 209 195 186 171 190 144 171 140 171 231 247 246 263 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.0 26.9 26.2 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 140 143 148 156 161 162 155 137 125 118 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 127 129 131 136 144 145 143 134 119 108 102 95 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.5 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 46 47 47 43 44 41 48 53 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 23 21 23 27 31 33 35 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 21 17 2 4 -9 -9 -11 3 -13 -20 -3 200 MB DIV 48 48 40 12 -5 30 11 56 16 44 29 68 50 700-850 TADV 7 11 15 14 9 11 11 2 1 2 -2 16 33 LAND (KM) 1861 1882 1864 1824 1746 1571 1466 1454 1529 1524 1300 1122 930 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.4 26.1 27.7 29.4 31.6 34.2 36.6 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 46.8 47.8 48.7 49.7 52.0 54.2 55.8 56.8 56.9 56.0 53.7 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 13 12 10 10 12 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 25 30 36 40 36 29 18 16 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 10. 17. 25. 34. 38. 43. 42. 38. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)