* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 32 37 42 45 46 44 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 32 37 42 45 37 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 43 38 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 16 18 13 12 21 30 31 35 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 -1 -4 -4 -2 0 -3 1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 21 1 358 2 6 17 320 339 318 328 320 330 325 SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.1 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 172 171 168 152 145 145 146 148 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 160 160 158 159 157 153 134 125 123 121 124 130 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 8 8 7 9 10 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 67 66 65 66 68 71 72 71 66 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -77 -53 -39 -40 -16 -20 -33 -37 -37 -30 -32 -10 200 MB DIV 22 1 16 19 1 19 5 -23 17 18 -5 0 10 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -5 -6 -8 0 -4 0 1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 140 249 363 433 405 427 298 70 -54 -147 -173 -205 -245 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.6 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.8 85.9 87.3 88.6 91.5 94.3 96.5 97.8 98.8 99.1 99.4 99.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 13 13 11 8 6 3 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 94 163 84 52 41 28 42 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 21. 19. 19. 19. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)