* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 40 44 48 52 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 40 44 48 52 56 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 36 38 42 47 54 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 5 5 9 14 18 11 7 11 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 2 0 1 -1 -4 0 -5 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 26 3 9 7 315 305 307 294 295 339 341 340 302 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 138 133 129 123 121 122 121 122 124 126 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 137 131 126 118 114 113 112 112 113 115 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 55 57 55 61 55 55 49 51 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 63 54 44 31 18 -11 -27 -46 -50 -56 -55 -57 -40 200 MB DIV -7 -12 -9 7 7 -6 0 0 -41 -17 -23 5 -17 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 2 6 7 2 4 6 4 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1125 1246 1372 1500 1632 1879 2096 2008 1938 1872 1813 1756 1690 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.4 32.7 35.0 37.1 39.0 40.8 42.4 43.8 45.2 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 13 12 11 8 12 11 5 6 12 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED