* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942014 09/13/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 23 23 25 28 27 26 24 22 21 18 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 23 23 25 39 36 46 42 38 39 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -3 -1 4 -7 0 -1 -1 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 252 270 272 256 262 276 281 279 276 281 287 282 288 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.8 27.6 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 161 162 162 166 169 168 166 158 146 130 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 150 151 150 151 148 144 139 132 121 108 89 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 6 7 7 9 11 11 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 78 78 77 74 68 67 62 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -8 -23 -37 -40 -38 -39 -26 -15 -40 -34 -54 -32 200 MB DIV 56 47 43 43 19 20 28 7 35 -9 -2 -6 18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 14 18 21 13 1 -4 2 -6 0 -10 LAND (KM) 161 109 0 -132 -263 -489 -481 -481 -472 -438 -420 -366 -304 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.4 26.1 27.6 28.9 29.8 30.6 31.1 31.7 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.8 97.8 99.1 100.4 102.7 104.2 105.2 106.2 107.2 108.1 109.2 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 9 7 6 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 13 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 421 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -1. -9. -16. -21. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942014 INVEST 09/13/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942014 INVEST 09/13/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942014 INVEST 09/13/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED