* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 58 67 76 83 88 91 89 86 79 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 58 67 76 83 88 91 89 86 79 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 51 53 58 64 72 78 80 79 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 11 11 7 10 5 7 8 13 15 19 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 1 8 9 SHEAR DIR 199 203 186 200 192 172 196 176 208 252 250 239 236 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.7 25.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 140 143 148 153 159 162 157 144 130 123 115 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 132 137 141 145 145 137 123 111 107 101 89 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 48 46 44 43 43 45 51 63 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 21 22 26 29 31 33 35 35 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 22 12 11 -4 -13 -4 -22 -14 -19 -22 -8 -6 5 200 MB DIV 56 33 6 -15 21 44 22 37 17 60 46 106 81 700-850 TADV 14 17 13 9 10 8 7 4 2 4 0 8 11 LAND (KM) 1928 1914 1873 1789 1714 1571 1492 1524 1609 1435 1271 1039 872 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.4 24.2 25.7 27.1 28.9 30.7 32.7 34.9 37.4 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.4 47.3 48.3 49.3 50.4 52.7 54.7 56.2 57.0 56.5 54.7 51.7 47.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 30 31 32 39 31 23 16 11 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 11. 13. 12. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 31. 38. 43. 46. 44. 41. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED