* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 42 45 42 39 36 35 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 39 42 45 42 34 30 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 41 44 38 32 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 18 21 12 18 24 40 36 41 39 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -4 -2 -6 3 -2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 348 353 359 11 18 15 332 303 322 313 318 313 321 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.1 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 172 172 168 162 152 144 143 144 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 156 157 157 152 143 131 121 118 118 119 120 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 7 6 8 5 9 7 10 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 66 64 63 66 66 72 67 67 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -55 -42 -46 -46 -27 -52 -46 -54 -47 -61 -41 -38 200 MB DIV 2 17 30 -5 4 11 -6 -9 -6 10 -29 7 -30 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -7 -8 -7 -2 -6 6 0 6 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 225 329 438 393 377 382 302 162 55 -12 -14 13 53 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.2 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.5 86.7 88.0 89.3 91.9 94.2 95.7 96.7 97.1 97.0 96.7 96.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 7 4 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 66 128 154 55 51 52 35 28 38 38 7 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. -1. -7. -12. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 17. 20. 17. 14. 11. 10. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 09/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 09/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)