* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 45 46 47 49 51 54 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 42 45 46 47 49 51 54 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 38 42 45 49 52 53 53 55 59 66 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 8 12 13 20 20 14 12 15 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 358 3 1 328 310 307 295 298 333 7 2 336 285 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 132 128 125 123 123 123 125 129 131 135 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 132 127 122 119 117 117 118 120 122 126 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 59 56 57 58 57 55 54 52 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 30 20 7 -12 -29 -37 -43 -45 -53 -53 -56 200 MB DIV -27 -21 -1 -3 -4 -16 -6 -25 -21 -16 6 6 15 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 7 10 9 9 5 6 1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1249 1401 1558 1712 1867 2035 1896 1770 1667 1595 1520 1392 1221 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.4 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 29.0 30.5 32.0 33.4 34.9 37.5 40.0 42.5 44.7 46.7 48.8 50.7 52.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 8 8 6 7 14 10 6 22 15 27 36 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 19. 21. 24. 28. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)