* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 81 83 90 89 87 78 69 58 49 40 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 81 83 90 89 87 78 69 58 49 40 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 75 79 82 85 84 81 75 66 57 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 7 7 4 3 6 4 9 13 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 39 42 47 75 115 120 226 172 184 171 217 222 217 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.5 26.4 25.4 24.6 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 154 155 151 145 139 127 116 107 101 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -49.9 -50.4 -49.6 -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 9 6 7 5 4 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 77 79 79 76 71 66 62 62 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 29 29 31 31 32 29 28 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 34 57 80 86 70 80 63 75 52 45 19 25 25 200 MB DIV 62 99 100 83 65 33 4 70 13 24 19 32 38 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -7 -4 -4 -2 -3 3 1 3 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 329 310 305 313 325 266 191 195 226 238 214 216 230 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.8 20.5 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.4 26.5 27.0 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.4 107.0 107.7 108.3 110.0 111.6 113.1 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.0 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 27 19 17 20 17 6 19 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 3. 7. 8. 9. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 18. 25. 24. 22. 13. 4. -7. -16. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##