* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932014 09/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 41 44 45 47 50 55 59 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 41 44 45 47 50 55 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 46 47 50 55 62 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 12 12 17 20 16 16 18 22 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 332 306 309 305 283 288 313 358 6 13 9 304 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 127 124 123 123 124 124 127 130 134 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 124 121 118 117 117 117 118 121 124 128 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 56 56 63 56 58 52 54 51 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 32 25 14 0 -7 -30 -35 -52 -54 -63 -61 -72 200 MB DIV -16 -6 -9 -7 -11 6 -2 -21 -11 -19 21 -11 15 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 8 8 6 7 3 1 0 -4 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1462 1611 1760 1905 2051 1951 1852 1748 1682 1623 1530 1389 1235 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 31.1 32.5 33.9 35.3 36.6 39.0 41.3 43.5 45.5 47.6 49.7 51.6 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 6 6 10 14 5 14 17 18 25 28 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 14. 15. 17. 20. 25. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932014 INVEST 09/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932014 INVEST 09/13/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED