* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/13/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 88 89 91 85 79 70 59 47 39 30 V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 88 89 91 85 79 70 59 47 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 75 82 86 90 92 92 89 82 74 64 55 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 4 5 7 6 3 2 3 6 11 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 3 3 -3 1 -1 0 -1 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 28 43 74 140 151 213 182 176 170 184 219 219 204 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.3 25.2 24.3 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 149 143 135 125 114 103 98 95 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 77 79 79 79 77 72 69 67 64 59 54 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 28 27 29 28 27 27 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 45 65 76 78 75 61 67 63 64 37 25 31 42 200 MB DIV 91 106 77 56 65 19 50 50 -1 9 15 34 29 700-850 TADV -5 -10 -6 -3 -1 -3 6 1 0 1 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 319 288 289 304 342 191 207 172 221 196 178 204 201 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.7 21.3 22.6 23.7 24.8 25.8 26.9 27.3 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.1 108.9 110.7 112.3 113.5 114.5 115.5 116.5 117.0 117.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 11 9 7 7 7 5 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 35 22 18 21 27 10 2 13 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 14. 16. 10. 4. -5. -16. -28. -36. -45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 31% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/13/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##