* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 99 101 100 94 87 79 65 55 43 30 18 V (KT) LAND 90 96 99 101 100 94 87 79 65 55 43 30 18 V (KT) LGE mod 90 99 104 106 106 101 93 84 73 61 52 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 5 7 9 2 4 7 10 9 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 3 0 1 1 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 40 100 145 168 150 210 132 94 173 230 216 217 209 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.4 25.9 24.6 23.7 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 155 150 145 137 121 107 97 91 90 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -50.4 -50.0 -50.5 -49.8 -50.6 -50.0 -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 6 7 4 4 2 3 3 5 700-500 MB RH 76 79 80 80 80 76 72 69 64 59 50 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 28 28 27 27 26 22 21 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 43 63 74 72 73 62 64 45 30 0 6 0 4 200 MB DIV 90 101 54 46 44 38 53 -6 5 17 32 36 20 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 -1 -3 6 2 -1 1 0 0 0 -8 LAND (KM) 251 238 245 290 233 104 116 121 153 149 158 179 153 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.3 19.1 20.0 20.9 22.6 23.7 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.6 28.1 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.6 108.5 109.3 111.0 112.3 113.5 114.6 115.7 116.6 116.8 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 10 7 7 7 6 5 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 23 38 27 4 20 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -9. -11. -16. -19. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 11. 10. 4. -3. -11. -25. -35. -47. -60. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##