* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 32 32 31 30 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 27 28 25 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 1 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 88 83 90 89 84 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.3 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 143 139 139 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -50.6 -51.1 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 63 67 71 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 83 102 100 75 50 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 56 60 45 65 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 3 -2 -15 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1094 1044 998 906 824 568 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.6 15.9 17.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.5 115.7 114.9 113.7 112.6 110.4 108.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 12 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 16 18 14 12 17 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##