* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 126 131 131 128 115 102 89 69 54 37 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 126 131 131 128 115 102 89 69 54 37 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 128 132 131 128 118 106 92 75 61 49 40 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 8 11 8 2 6 12 15 22 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 117 167 171 183 223 200 197 231 203 224 218 219 219 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.8 27.8 26.0 24.1 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 158 156 155 152 141 122 101 92 87 83 81 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 78 75 73 69 68 62 57 47 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 27 26 25 21 19 17 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 76 78 68 60 43 22 7 3 0 11 40 200 MB DIV 88 48 54 62 16 44 68 12 19 28 40 13 5 700-850 TADV -9 -5 0 -3 0 8 0 3 2 1 0 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 222 229 292 149 46 51 110 57 69 79 126 115 95 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.7 24.2 25.5 26.5 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.2 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.5 109.5 110.4 111.9 113.2 114.2 115.1 115.8 116.4 116.7 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 9 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 29 43 16 5 3 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 15. 8. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -11. -15. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 16. 16. 13. 0. -13. -26. -46. -61. -78. -94.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 52% is 9.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##