* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 83 86 92 98 101 102 97 90 78 63 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 83 86 92 98 101 102 97 90 78 63 V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 80 84 87 91 92 90 86 81 74 64 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 14 11 10 9 7 0 7 18 26 34 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -3 -2 3 0 6 0 7 4 8 -2 SHEAR DIR 173 127 132 145 157 148 117 219 184 218 243 257 282 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.1 27.9 26.9 25.9 23.9 22.4 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 160 161 162 160 153 136 125 117 102 92 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 146 144 144 139 132 118 110 105 91 83 78 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 49 56 52 53 55 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 29 30 32 34 35 36 35 35 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -9 -4 -11 -16 -9 -10 -15 7 -13 2 7 -8 200 MB DIV 23 70 40 39 45 37 26 49 93 98 67 74 10 700-850 TADV 14 12 5 5 6 6 1 10 -2 10 11 18 5 LAND (KM) 1760 1658 1566 1517 1478 1459 1537 1508 1305 1069 907 1084 1415 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.0 25.6 26.3 26.9 28.2 29.7 31.8 34.3 37.1 39.8 41.6 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.3 52.7 53.7 54.7 56.3 57.1 56.8 55.5 52.2 47.1 41.5 36.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 11 10 9 9 12 16 22 23 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 32 32 30 25 13 15 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 8. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 28. 31. 32. 27. 20. 8. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 10( 19) 13( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)