* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 126 125 122 113 99 81 63 46 31 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 122 126 125 122 113 99 81 63 46 31 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 122 123 121 118 108 97 82 67 55 46 39 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 4 8 5 7 8 12 11 16 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 -1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 130 142 173 218 211 188 254 205 237 211 222 208 223 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.2 26.6 24.6 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 153 152 146 128 106 96 93 90 87 87 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.1 -50.8 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 6 6 3 4 2 3 3 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 80 78 76 73 69 67 59 55 47 42 37 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 25 25 25 24 21 18 15 13 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 71 74 67 60 57 33 16 -4 2 -7 6 23 200 MB DIV 50 65 54 43 63 50 18 17 -1 6 20 0 -8 700-850 TADV -7 -2 0 2 2 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 236 300 150 71 87 50 92 74 73 108 153 157 157 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.5 23.3 24.8 26.0 26.8 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.3 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.5 111.4 112.8 114.0 114.9 115.6 116.1 116.5 116.5 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 3 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 25 36 14 6 3 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -30. -41. -50. -58. -63. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 10. 7. -2. -16. -34. -52. -69. -84. -98.-111. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##