* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 09/14/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 55 63 71 76 83 85 90 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 46 55 63 71 76 83 85 90 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 45 52 60 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 13 12 11 7 4 7 10 13 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 63 65 70 64 55 56 17 19 50 39 62 69 70 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 150 150 153 155 158 164 165 162 159 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 7 10 9 11 8 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 86 86 83 82 79 78 76 79 77 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 18 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 50 39 36 33 31 21 22 16 18 28 35 58 73 200 MB DIV 47 31 40 54 51 83 93 99 51 63 45 81 61 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 466 482 499 535 580 534 496 446 386 325 227 196 179 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 11.0 11.6 12.5 13.7 15.0 16.3 17.4 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.4 94.1 94.9 95.7 97.3 98.8 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.0 105.1 106.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 20 14 9 11 14 18 32 50 41 30 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 17. 17. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 26. 35. 43. 51. 56. 63. 65. 70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 09/14/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 09/14/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##