* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 89 93 99 103 104 102 95 86 72 59 V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 89 93 99 103 104 102 95 86 72 59 V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 86 90 93 96 94 90 86 79 71 60 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 9 11 13 8 5 6 15 22 29 38 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 3 5 1 3 SHEAR DIR 121 137 145 138 131 137 265 247 204 234 252 272 283 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.3 27.3 26.3 25.2 23.9 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 161 162 160 154 141 129 119 110 101 89 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 145 145 141 133 121 112 105 98 89 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.2 -51.4 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.4 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 5 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 41 42 41 49 54 60 60 61 61 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 29 29 32 33 34 35 36 35 34 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 -17 -20 -15 -27 -22 -28 -7 -13 -7 -18 -12 200 MB DIV 64 50 31 45 62 10 60 43 90 73 75 25 11 700-850 TADV 14 6 10 3 4 2 5 6 5 20 23 16 5 LAND (KM) 1649 1578 1518 1488 1469 1520 1587 1415 1211 982 981 1180 1432 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.1 27.8 29.3 31.0 33.2 35.8 38.2 40.3 41.5 41.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.6 53.8 54.7 55.7 56.8 56.8 55.7 53.6 49.8 44.7 40.2 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 10 14 17 21 20 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 31 30 27 15 17 17 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 28. 29. 27. 20. 11. -3. -16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/14/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 14( 26) 21( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 5( 6) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED