* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 108 105 103 96 86 69 54 38 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 109 108 105 103 96 86 69 54 38 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 107 104 101 98 91 82 71 60 50 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 8 8 4 8 11 12 15 17 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 0 0 -5 -5 0 -5 0 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 254 180 205 216 190 202 230 204 225 209 210 199 204 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 27.8 26.3 24.3 23.5 23.2 23.3 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 154 153 150 141 125 103 94 89 89 89 87 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 71 65 63 56 51 46 42 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 27 25 25 23 22 19 16 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 72 65 64 44 27 3 -5 -13 -10 7 19 200 MB DIV 60 46 33 28 43 42 14 22 7 25 14 6 17 700-850 TADV 7 4 3 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -13 LAND (KM) 291 165 60 73 65 106 79 70 72 100 98 91 96 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.3 26.2 27.0 27.6 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.5 110.4 111.2 112.0 113.2 114.1 115.0 115.7 116.0 116.0 115.9 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 3 1 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 37 17 7 4 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -28. -38. -48. -54. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -7. -14. -24. -40. -56. -72. -87. -99.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##