* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 09/14/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 51 58 64 65 70 71 78 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 51 58 64 65 70 71 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 52 60 68 74 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 16 17 13 10 11 12 18 16 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 1 1 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 69 64 55 42 38 41 45 68 49 49 67 59 62 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 152 153 154 155 159 163 164 164 162 160 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 80 82 84 85 82 82 78 76 74 74 75 78 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 10 9 11 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 21 15 12 16 10 18 22 34 42 62 60 200 MB DIV 19 40 44 37 68 102 86 68 66 46 72 83 70 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 539 575 612 591 582 540 495 433 338 254 192 165 118 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.8 14.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.3 95.1 95.9 96.7 97.5 98.8 99.8 100.5 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.5 103.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 7 8 11 14 15 21 31 35 32 29 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 26. 33. 39. 40. 45. 46. 53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 09/14/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 09/14/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##