* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 103 101 95 81 63 45 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 103 92 86 64 57 39 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 106 102 99 88 83 65 60 48 39 33 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 12 10 6 11 13 13 19 22 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 179 227 206 185 185 226 187 215 200 216 201 202 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 27.7 24.2 23.1 22.8 22.7 22.8 23.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 155 152 140 103 90 86 84 85 87 91 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.2 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 7 7 4 4 2 3 3 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 69 67 64 58 56 49 46 39 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 22 22 20 18 15 12 10 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 55 54 49 22 13 -14 -2 -19 0 8 11 200 MB DIV 38 50 4 28 67 21 21 8 30 28 27 -8 16 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -6 -12 -18 LAND (KM) 129 5 11 8 30 33 -2 24 77 85 63 48 34 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.0 23.9 24.6 25.2 26.4 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.1 111.0 111.7 112.4 113.3 114.4 115.1 115.4 115.4 115.3 115.2 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 7 4 25 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -19. -31. -42. -52. -58. -64. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -19. -26. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -29. -47. -65. -82. -99.-113.-122. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##