* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN EP162014 09/15/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 20 20 20 19 17 17 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 20 20 20 19 17 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 80 83 89 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.6 27.4 28.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 141 153 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 47 37 39 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 28 20 33 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -12 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 642 467 236 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 17.4 18.8 20.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.8 111.9 111.0 110.4 109.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 18 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 21 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/15/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162014 SIXTEEN 09/15/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##