* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 100 101 104 103 101 93 78 62 49 42 V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 100 101 104 103 101 93 78 62 49 42 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 99 101 100 97 90 84 78 68 58 49 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 10 9 10 2 12 21 39 44 44 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 0 1 3 4 9 5 -3 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 145 122 116 133 125 115 225 190 223 242 268 281 291 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.1 27.2 26.2 25.0 23.7 22.0 21.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 155 138 128 119 108 99 89 86 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 140 137 133 119 112 104 96 87 78 75 79 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -52.8 -53.5 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 41 43 43 43 49 51 52 50 51 52 49 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 32 32 35 34 35 35 31 26 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -21 -18 -17 -33 -4 -12 8 5 -2 -18 -20 16 200 MB DIV 58 40 38 31 6 82 88 95 50 42 29 -6 -1 700-850 TADV 5 6 4 4 5 3 22 8 20 20 11 9 0 LAND (KM) 1508 1487 1478 1494 1517 1549 1369 1177 938 934 1140 1375 1593 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 29.4 31.3 33.6 36.1 38.7 40.6 41.7 41.7 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 54.9 55.8 56.4 57.0 57.0 55.8 53.2 49.4 45.1 40.6 37.3 35.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 11 14 18 19 18 15 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 27 21 15 19 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -33. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 7. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. 13. 11. 3. -12. -28. -41. -48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 23( 46) 26( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)