* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 96 97 97 97 96 92 83 70 57 46 40 V (KT) LAND 90 94 96 97 97 97 96 92 83 70 57 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 90 95 98 98 97 91 85 79 72 64 56 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 15 14 4 7 13 23 32 36 34 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 4 1 8 7 6 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 115 118 131 113 118 26 187 211 234 257 273 290 297 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 27.7 26.7 25.5 23.9 22.9 22.4 22.7 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 152 145 134 124 113 100 93 89 89 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 137 131 125 117 109 100 89 81 77 76 76 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.9 -53.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 41 44 51 51 46 50 50 48 42 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 32 32 33 33 33 32 30 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -20 -25 -31 -24 0 7 0 7 0 -9 12 53 200 MB DIV 56 61 3 10 55 83 60 87 43 66 12 -25 -18 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 0 2 16 9 10 18 9 4 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1454 1455 1466 1519 1577 1430 1234 1005 949 1119 1335 1503 1643 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.5 30.4 32.6 35.3 37.8 39.9 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 55.1 55.9 56.7 57.1 57.5 56.8 54.6 50.9 46.0 41.8 38.7 36.5 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 14 18 21 19 14 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 18 12 13 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -17. -24. -31. -36. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 2. -7. -20. -33. -44. -50. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 19( 29) 20( 43) 20( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 0( 5) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED