* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 83 80 79 76 69 61 53 48 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LAND 90 75 74 58 48 36 32 29 23 DIS DIS 20 24 V (KT) LGE mod 90 75 72 58 48 36 32 36 40 47 46 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 9 8 14 18 18 27 32 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 181 158 206 225 197 232 230 231 221 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.5 25.9 28.1 29.9 30.7 30.8 30.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 150 148 138 120 142 160 167 168 168 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.0 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 5 3 6 5 9 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 65 60 58 53 50 43 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 23 20 17 14 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 58 46 32 14 -2 2 -5 25 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 57 77 63 8 33 16 28 26 30 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -11 -45 7 -20 -74 -8 -11 41 65 24 -8 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.7 27.4 28.6 29.4 29.9 30.1 30.5 31.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.7 112.3 112.8 113.3 114.0 114.1 113.9 113.6 113.2 112.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 5 4 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 15 9 2 7 0 9 32 38 44 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -5. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -21. -24. -29. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -10. -11. -14. -21. -29. -37. -42. -51. -59. -62. -63. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##