* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 09/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 62 66 69 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 49 55 62 66 69 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 45 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 19 18 16 10 7 11 11 18 13 20 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 4 1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 41 33 22 24 24 9 16 34 54 59 54 76 98 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 154 156 158 161 160 158 157 155 152 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.4 -52.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 10 9 12 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 84 82 81 79 79 78 77 75 74 73 75 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 14 14 14 15 16 15 17 19 21 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 5 0 0 -5 13 21 37 54 83 84 61 200 MB DIV 82 77 93 105 101 101 74 71 66 91 43 34 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 1 -1 -2 -2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 667 637 620 590 562 478 359 233 107 39 38 158 144 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.1 12.4 14.1 15.9 17.5 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.9 97.8 98.5 99.3 100.6 101.8 102.9 103.9 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 10 12 13 23 39 37 32 20 26 36 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 8. 10. 13. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 30. 37. 41. 44. 38. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 09/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 09/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##