* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 96 96 96 95 95 88 77 63 50 39 32 V (KT) LAND 95 96 96 96 96 95 95 88 77 63 50 39 32 V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 96 95 92 87 82 76 69 60 52 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 13 11 4 12 20 27 35 33 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 6 3 0 3 10 3 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 125 144 124 122 107 128 234 246 244 268 283 301 301 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.0 24.5 23.7 22.6 23.2 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 153 146 139 131 117 105 98 90 92 93 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 133 127 120 116 104 93 86 78 79 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.5 -53.1 -54.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 4 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 45 48 53 52 53 55 51 45 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 31 32 33 31 33 32 31 28 24 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -28 -35 -22 -9 -12 16 11 6 -27 -43 -3 37 200 MB DIV 47 19 26 48 72 68 71 65 51 10 0 -18 1 700-850 TADV 5 5 2 3 9 19 4 15 21 8 17 9 2 LAND (KM) 1433 1458 1490 1588 1516 1348 1112 951 1054 1259 1449 1602 1741 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.4 31.5 33.8 36.7 39.0 40.4 40.7 39.9 39.7 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 56.1 56.7 57.3 57.3 57.3 55.8 52.4 48.0 43.3 39.8 37.8 35.8 33.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 16 20 20 16 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 13 13 17 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -22. -31. -38. -44. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -7. -18. -32. -45. -56. -63. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/15/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 19( 46) 17( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 1( 3) 0( 3) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED