* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 69 67 65 59 56 49 42 39 36 33 33 V (KT) LAND 80 65 56 46 39 33 34 27 19 16 22 25 26 V (KT) LGE mod 80 65 55 45 38 33 36 40 45 46 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 8 9 10 17 19 22 26 30 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 -2 -3 1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 159 181 228 221 205 231 224 226 231 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.2 27.5 30.4 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 143 134 137 166 167 166 168 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 4 5 4 5 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 64 61 57 54 49 43 39 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 19 18 15 13 8 3 4 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 51 34 22 2 -10 2 6 48 46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 79 70 14 2 14 9 37 33 30 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 -3 0 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -50 -4 -35 -69 -39 -27 62 44 24 -6 -39 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.0 30.4 30.5 30.7 31.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.2 112.7 113.2 113.6 114.0 113.7 113.4 113.2 112.9 112.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 2 1 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 21 10 17 0 0 36 43 44 12 59 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -19. -25. -24. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -13. -15. -21. -24. -31. -38. -41. -44. -47. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##