* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 09/15/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 53 59 65 65 67 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 53 59 65 55 62 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 40 46 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 13 9 11 8 11 14 17 16 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 3 1 3 7 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 24 36 36 6 20 41 56 64 59 64 87 110 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 156 157 160 162 159 158 158 154 151 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 9 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 78 76 76 75 76 71 75 72 70 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 16 18 18 19 19 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 4 7 -3 9 23 45 51 79 86 85 44 200 MB DIV 72 83 115 101 91 96 86 77 71 57 15 49 23 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -3 0 -3 -5 0 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 657 624 594 542 497 391 253 144 39 -3 85 204 24 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.8 13.3 15.1 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.8 21.9 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.5 98.2 98.9 99.6 100.7 101.7 102.7 103.7 105.0 106.4 108.1 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 11 13 14 35 32 31 23 11 30 30 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 5. 7. 7. 11. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 28. 34. 40. 40. 42. 39. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 09/15/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 09/15/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##