* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 96 96 97 92 84 70 56 42 34 29 V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 96 96 97 92 84 70 56 42 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 95 96 95 92 89 84 79 73 65 56 49 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 7 5 6 16 22 29 35 28 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 7 5 -1 3 8 9 0 -2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 121 123 111 96 92 198 235 235 262 280 297 293 281 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.7 26.6 25.3 23.9 22.6 22.2 22.9 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 146 139 134 123 111 100 92 87 90 91 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 126 121 117 109 99 89 81 76 77 78 77 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 6 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 39 40 43 47 50 52 48 51 52 48 45 45 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 32 32 32 32 31 31 28 23 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -38 -21 -12 -15 17 11 10 5 -26 -15 7 13 200 MB DIV 12 19 38 80 92 89 56 53 30 -18 -16 -11 -9 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 9 14 11 4 15 13 8 8 4 -13 LAND (KM) 1473 1524 1580 1510 1420 1236 968 945 1171 1393 1535 1695 1866 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.7 32.8 35.4 38.2 40.1 40.9 40.9 40.2 39.7 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.1 57.6 57.1 56.6 54.3 50.5 45.7 40.9 37.7 36.3 34.5 32.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 12 14 18 21 20 15 9 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 14 16 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -25. -34. -41. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -8. -13. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -3. -11. -25. -39. -53. -61. -66. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 19( 33) 19( 46) 20( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED