* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 53 52 50 48 46 40 37 37 36 35 37 V (KT) LAND 60 51 43 38 35 37 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 60 51 43 37 34 37 40 31 28 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 13 12 16 13 23 29 41 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -7 -6 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 177 213 216 210 237 216 227 224 231 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 28.6 28.2 28.2 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.2 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 149 145 144 168 168 168 163 153 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.2 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 5 5 4 7 6 10 7 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 64 60 61 56 51 43 35 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 17 14 10 5 3 7 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 41 25 9 -1 5 14 30 61 61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 82 44 20 18 8 32 37 38 10 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -2 4 0 0 -1 -5 0 2 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -37 -46 -48 -38 -28 53 0 -34 -58 -109 -165 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.9 27.6 28.2 28.7 29.6 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.6 31.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.5 113.0 113.3 113.6 113.4 112.9 112.6 112.4 112.0 111.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 16 0 0 0 34 9 48 57 49 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -5. -14. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -16. -24. -26. -21. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -20. -23. -23. -24. -25. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##