* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 95 96 97 97 90 78 62 46 34 26 22 V (KT) LAND 95 95 95 96 97 97 90 78 62 46 34 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 95 94 92 89 86 82 77 69 60 52 47 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 8 3 3 10 16 28 32 31 22 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 7 4 0 0 5 10 1 -1 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 123 118 106 119 195 210 240 247 271 294 308 310 292 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.0 24.3 23.5 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.2 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 139 133 129 117 103 97 89 89 92 92 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 124 120 117 113 104 92 85 78 77 79 79 78 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 8 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 37 40 43 48 52 49 50 51 51 48 43 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 32 33 32 33 33 32 30 25 20 14 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -25 -13 -10 3 9 14 9 -15 -44 -38 4 3 200 MB DIV 24 42 89 84 74 82 33 45 -8 -12 -35 -9 -9 700-850 TADV 3 4 8 16 12 11 4 27 15 16 9 4 -15 LAND (KM) 1522 1606 1502 1411 1306 1100 917 1019 1253 1467 1636 1810 1937 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.9 34.2 36.8 39.3 40.7 40.9 40.5 39.5 38.9 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 57.3 57.4 56.6 55.8 52.8 48.1 43.5 39.7 37.0 35.5 33.6 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 15 16 20 20 16 12 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 16 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -28. -37. -45. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -5. -17. -33. -49. -61. -69. -73. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 20( 45) 20( 56) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 1( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)