* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 50 48 47 48 40 36 35 30 24 23 25 V (KT) LAND 55 46 40 36 34 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 39 36 34 37 31 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 15 15 20 27 31 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 210 220 209 214 225 232 239 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.1 28.4 28.8 30.8 30.4 29.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 152 143 146 150 169 167 152 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 5 5 4 5 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 63 60 59 56 52 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 16 13 6 3 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 38 23 3 2 -8 16 15 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 34 36 51 34 -1 28 54 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -44 -40 -37 -24 -5 27 -55 -118 -187 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 27.7 28.3 28.7 29.1 30.1 30.9 31.6 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.0 113.4 113.6 113.7 113.2 112.4 111.9 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 5 5 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 2 0 40 49 48 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -5. -13. -19. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -18. -23. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -15. -18. -20. -25. -31. -32. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##