* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972014 09/16/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 61 69 69 72 65 57 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 49 57 61 69 69 72 65 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 46 50 57 64 70 71 69 66 62 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 7 8 11 16 15 22 17 24 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -2 2 3 1 4 2 1 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 39 34 31 49 44 56 69 66 77 86 87 110 116 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 160 161 162 160 158 154 151 149 147 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 77 75 76 74 74 72 72 66 66 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 17 18 21 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 17 22 26 33 42 33 59 54 60 41 59 200 MB DIV 87 93 106 98 102 84 58 79 52 43 52 5 41 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 485 430 392 362 331 278 212 191 228 287 292 211 161 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 22 37 38 42 35 23 24 37 31 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 4. 5. 10. 7. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 26. 34. 34. 37. 30. 22. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972014 INVEST 09/16/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972014 INVEST 09/16/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##