* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 99 98 97 91 82 65 49 34 24 21 19 V (KT) LAND 100 99 99 98 97 91 82 65 49 34 24 21 19 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 96 92 88 81 74 65 55 49 45 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 5 4 10 15 25 35 35 28 15 22 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 4 2 -3 5 5 1 -1 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 119 113 113 178 199 229 238 270 286 306 315 283 279 SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.3 23.6 22.5 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 132 128 122 111 99 91 86 87 90 92 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 119 115 113 108 99 87 80 75 74 76 80 80 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 8 6 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 40 44 49 53 54 48 53 56 51 44 45 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 32 32 30 30 26 21 17 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -14 -2 4 24 18 9 -2 -52 -47 2 -10 0 200 MB DIV 37 95 85 77 91 36 49 23 -5 -40 -6 -23 -20 700-850 TADV 4 6 14 20 8 4 24 21 16 16 13 -29 -37 LAND (KM) 1584 1476 1364 1281 1186 938 903 1097 1325 1499 1600 1797 1927 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.8 33.0 34.4 35.7 38.4 40.4 41.3 41.2 40.8 40.2 39.1 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 57.6 57.4 56.1 54.8 51.0 46.0 41.6 38.4 36.3 35.4 33.6 31.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 17 19 21 19 14 10 6 6 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 16 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -24. -36. -45. -53. -58. -61. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -35. -51. -66. -76. -79. -81. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 20( 51) 12( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)