* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 46 46 44 38 37 36 32 27 26 27 V (KT) LAND 50 44 44 43 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 39 44 44 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 15 16 19 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 0 3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 220 208 207 233 232 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 29.3 30.8 30.8 30.3 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 156 169 169 167 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 60 60 59 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 15 14 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 18 -2 2 -4 3 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 26 44 26 6 4 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 1 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -23 -13 1 49 28 -56 -180 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.0 31.1 32.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.3 113.6 113.4 113.2 112.4 111.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 5 0 26 35 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -11. -16. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -12. -13. -14. -18. -23. -24. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##