* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/16/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 56 66 75 80 79 71 68 63 54 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 56 66 75 80 79 71 68 63 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 45 50 55 64 71 75 75 72 68 64 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 7 7 5 10 14 15 15 23 23 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 4 1 4 6 3 1 0 5 1 SHEAR DIR 37 26 33 25 22 35 66 61 68 65 92 84 88 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 162 162 159 158 155 151 149 147 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 8 8 11 8 10 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 80 78 76 76 76 76 74 70 70 68 68 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 20 20 22 24 24 20 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 27 30 37 48 51 51 69 56 50 46 34 200 MB DIV 88 104 100 101 94 76 90 57 48 62 23 43 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 0 -8 -4 -7 0 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 403 372 346 302 257 169 142 152 218 289 314 255 255 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 16.5 17.8 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.8 100.6 101.2 101.8 103.1 104.8 106.3 107.5 108.4 109.1 110.1 111.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 32 42 37 32 29 25 18 26 35 29 15 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 7. 8. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 31. 40. 45. 44. 36. 33. 28. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##