* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL062014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 95 95 94 87 73 52 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 94 95 95 94 87 73 52 34 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 93 90 87 84 77 68 58 49 43 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 4 4 8 12 20 32 36 37 28 23 27 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 0 -2 1 7 10 0 -3 -7 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 109 117 161 204 213 229 257 284 294 308 298 282 278 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.5 26.0 24.3 23.5 22.1 22.4 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 129 122 117 103 97 87 87 90 91 91 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 113 109 104 92 85 76 75 77 78 79 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -55.2 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 8 7 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 43 49 51 51 47 49 50 50 42 37 32 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 33 33 33 33 30 24 17 12 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -4 0 30 23 24 3 -13 -62 -41 -36 -41 -36 200 MB DIV 85 101 73 77 74 49 26 -17 -13 -25 0 -9 -24 700-850 TADV 5 11 23 8 13 16 26 20 14 18 10 -8 -15 LAND (KM) 1480 1389 1294 1208 1078 899 1031 1240 1412 1564 1716 1887 1960 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.6 37.0 39.4 40.7 41.1 40.7 40.2 39.6 38.6 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 57.0 56.2 54.5 52.8 48.3 43.3 39.7 37.6 35.9 34.3 32.8 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 20 21 21 17 11 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -24. -34. -43. -50. -54. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -1. -8. -22. -43. -61. -74. -84. -89. -91. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062014 EDOUARD 09/16/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 16( 42) 10( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)