* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODILE EP152014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 39 38 32 32 29 26 22 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 44 43 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 45 44 45 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 21 24 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 1 2 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 213 222 237 236 240 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 30.2 30.6 30.8 30.7 28.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 165 169 169 169 150 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 59 56 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 14 12 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 0 -2 -9 7 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 50 34 4 -1 27 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -14 23 62 34 1 -110 -248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.4 30.9 31.9 33.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.5 113.6 113.6 113.3 113.0 112.3 111.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 32 39 18 51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -15. -23. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -19. -20. -21. -21. -20. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -13. -13. -16. -19. -23. -28. -30. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152014 ODILE 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##