* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 55 59 66 73 77 74 67 62 55 52 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 55 59 66 73 77 74 67 62 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 52 56 64 70 73 71 68 64 59 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 8 11 16 17 20 14 25 21 23 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 5 2 6 5 5 0 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 39 32 32 48 46 69 58 70 74 77 92 92 90 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 161 160 158 154 151 150 146 143 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 77 75 74 69 70 67 66 63 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 18 20 23 22 21 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 28 33 29 37 28 58 66 59 42 53 42 200 MB DIV 105 106 111 100 95 71 81 61 45 38 18 32 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 401 367 332 309 298 237 212 253 322 279 215 212 284 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.2 102.0 102.9 104.7 106.0 107.4 108.7 109.7 110.4 111.4 112.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 10 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 32 42 40 35 36 30 19 18 30 20 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 8. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 26. 33. 37. 34. 27. 22. 15. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##